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Evolution, Intelligent Designers, Climate Change, and the Scholarly Ecosystem
Annual Meeting Keynote, March 30, 2006
Illinois Association of College and Research Librarians

Michael Jon Jensen
Director of Publishing Technologies, the National Academies Press (www.nap.edu)
Director of Web Communications, the National Academies (www.nationalacademies.org)


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The problem is...

"The problem is that we have tied tenure to the publication of a scholarly book. No, others say: uncoupling tenure from books cannot solve the problem because journals are in trouble, too. Others suggest that the problem is the scholarly monograph itself, or that the problem is curtailed library spending on humanities books. The problem is price-gauging by commercial publishers of science journals, necessitating that libraries spend less money on humanities and social science publications. The problem is chain bookstores, the dwindling number of independent bookstores, and the increasing conservatism of those that remain. The problem is electronic booksellers like Amazon.com with their heavy discounting and selling of used books. The problem is that books cost too much to produce. The problem is that electronic publishing is too expensive and doesn't work for monographs. The problem is shrinking subsidies to presses in the wake of cutbacks to higher education for state universities. [...] The problem is that, since 9/11, people are watching CNN and not buying books, trade or academic. The problem is that university press books are underpriced relative to their production costs. The problem is that university press books cost too much relative to the income of their target audience. The problem is too many books. The problem is too few books. The problem is too many books of one kind and too few of another. The problem is students don't know how to read any more.
Cathy N. Davidson, "Crises and Opportunities: The Future(s) of Scholarly Publishing"
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Evolution

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Evolution: Rain Forest

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Evolution: Darwin's Finches

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Evolutionary Pressure from Carrying Capacity

* Population density
* Resource availability
* Climate variability
* Ecosystem dependencies
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Scholarly Ecosystem Pressures

* Population shifts
* Massive resource abundance
* Ecosystem participation dependencies
* Climate Change
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Evolution: The Open Access Publications of
The National Academies Press (nap.edu)

  • > 3600 reports fully, freely browsable online (> 600,000 pages available, each free, each printable)
  • > 1,300,000 visitors/month
  • ~ 150,000,000 page views/year (95 million Openbook pages, 55 million other)
  • NAP has been digitizing publications for free online dissemination since 1995 (GIF page images, page-based HTML, PDFs, TEI XML)
 
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National Academies Press (nap.edu) Mission:
Self-Sustainability + Maximal Dissemination


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Balancing Two Competing Pressures
  • Openbook Page, every report page displayed with navigation, search, purchase options
  • Skim View of every chapter, to ease online browsing
  • Web Search Builder, a means of using the key terms of any chapter to build targeted searches of Google, and soon to be others, as well as the National Academies Press.
  • Reference Finder, a Web form into which one can drop a rough draft or an article to "find more like" it.
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Institutional Support

"Take More Risks"
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Genetically Identical

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Genetically Diverse

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Compound Web Interest

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Wild Web

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Intelligently Designed

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Intelligently Designed

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Intelligently Designed

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Climate Change: Invasive Species

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Out There

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Economics of Attention: Invisibility
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Economics of Attention: Barriers
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New Microclimates: Web 2.0
Tim O'Reilly
Web 2.0: The Web as Software Platform
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Evidence of Microclimates: Blogs
From Technorati.com, as of March 11:
"The Pew Internet study estimates that about 11%, or about 50 million, of Internet users are regular blog readers. According to Technorati data, there are about 70,000 new blogs a day. Bloggers - people who write weblogs - update their weblogs regularly; there are about 700,000 posts daily, or about 29,100 blog updates an hour."
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Evidence of Microclimates: Flickr et al.
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Evidence of Microclimates: Myspace
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Evidence of Microclimates: craigslist.com
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Evidence of Microclimates: boingboing.net
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Evidence of Microclimates: video sharing
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O'Reilly's Key elements of Web 2.0 Businesses
  • Services, not packaged software, with cost-effective scalability
  • Control over unique, hard-to-recreate data sources that get richer as more people use them
  • Trusting users as co-developers
  • Harnessing collective intelligence
  • Leveraging the long tail through customer self-service
  • Lightweight user interfaces, development models, AND business models
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Scholarly Ecosystems, 1993
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New Scholarly Ecosystems, 2006+
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Rules of Thumb during Scholarly Climate Change
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Evidence of Abrupt Climate Change
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What Can Libraries and Scholarly Publishers Do?
  • Prove our continuing value
  • Find new niches
  • Engage with our institutions
  • Work with your counterparts
  • Develop specialized skills
  • Develop Web brand recognition
  • Develop a "seal of approval" for Web resources
  • Make more content open
  • Work with search engines and scholarly societies
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Surviving Scholarly Climate Change
"Take More Risks"
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Complex New Ecosystems